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| 2002 AFC Predictions "Trevor The Great" 49ers Paradise Fan Press 08.22.2002 Well, there's two weeks left until the regular season starts, so I figure now's as good a time as any to throw my hat in the ring as it were and post my predictions and projections for the 2002 season. The best thing about this type of post is that in today's NFL, predicting anything is damn near impossible. The salary cap and the ever-lovin' P word -- parity -- make the NFL a big game of chance. Anyone can win in any given year. But since I'm wholly dissatisfied with the predictions the so-called "experts" have to give, I'm gonna give my own. So here we go, all 32 teams in a nutshell. We'll do the AFC today and the NFC tomorrow. Here goes. AFC East: NEW ENGLAND: What better place to start than with the reigning champs? The Patriots caught lightning in a bottle last year, taking an undertalented roster and a dumbed-down offense with a second year QB all the way to Super Bowl supremacy. But as any fool on the street will tell you, lightning never strikes in the same place twice. The Patriots' coaching will keep them in most games and put them in the playoffs, but despite offseason improvements, their roster still has weaknesses and they will be exposed in the playoffs by a better team. NEW YORK JETS: The Jets have revamped their porous defense, adding LB Sam Cowart, CBs Donnie Abraham and Aaron Beasley, and DE Bryan Thomas. But while I think the defense will be dynamic next year, the offense will probably remain anemic with decrepit QB Vinny Testaverde at the controls. His arm strength is waning, what little footspeed he had is gone, and his backup, Chad Pennington, wont do anything in the NFL -- ever. Despite the presence of all-pro Curtis Martin, they'll only go as far as their defense can take them. BUFFALO: In today's NFL, teams recover from salary cap hell by going through a horrible season brought on by dead money from released free agents, then go on a shopping spree to reload their roster and take advantage of a weak schedule to jump into the playoffs. Says here that Buffalo will be the NFL's most improved team. With new kids Drew Bledsoe, Mike Williams, London Fletcher, and Josh Reed adding to a solid cast consisting of Travis Henry, Eric Moulds, Peerless Price, Antoine Winfield and Nate Clements, the Bills have a very talented core. And with a few lucky bounces and wins against weak teams, they could find themselves with a first-round playoff bye. I dont think they're good enough to make the Super Bowl, but they will be much better. MIAMI - Many major publications cite the acquisition of Ricky Williams as the final piece to the Dolphins' Super Bowl puzzle. I dont buy it. Williams was never an Emmitt Smith-type back in New Orleans. If anything, he was injury prone and slow. And while I think he'll rack up a lot of yards in Norv Turner's offense, the true barometer of how far the Dolphins can go is the play of QB Jay Fiedler and the depleted defense. Fiedler was hugely inconsistent last year, pulling off a huge win against the Raiders early in the season, then leading the dolphins to a shutout against the 49ers later in the year. He has all the weapons now, and none of the excuses of the past. And getting less press is the Dolphins' defense, which lost starters Daryl Gardener, Kenny Mixon, and Brian Walker plus important depth. If Fiedler remains inconsitent and the defense's play falters, the Dolphins wont even get a sniff at the title, Williams or no. AFC SOUTH: INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts are becoming the chic pick for AFC champions, and the logic for that pick is there. New coach Tony Dungy brings his vaunted Cover-2 defense, league-renowned for turning defenses around quickly, and the Colts retain the coaching staff and the core personnel from last year's no. 2 offense. But unfortunately, the Colts' defense isnt talented enough to make a Rams-like turnaround in one year. While the Colts will make a return to the playoffs, their weaknesses too will likely be exposed when their shallow secondary and weak defensive line are taken advantage of in the tournament. JACKSONVILLE: Though I think they'll be highly competitive in 2003, the Jaguars still face a lot of problems this year. The loss of Keenan McCardell and Tony Boselli on offense and Gary Walker, Seth Payne, Hardy Nickerson, and Aaron Beasley on defense will set the Jaguars to the back of the line of NFL teams, but hope is on the horizon. This year will let their young lines develop and though hard times will come a'knocking, there is hope on the horizon. TENNESSEE: The Titans could be once again on the cusp of respectability. Though injuries and bad luck depleted their team last year, they reloaded this offseason and hope to regain their position among the NFL's elite. With Steve McNair coming off a career year, and Eddie George 100% healthy again, the offense is in good hands. The defense underwent some changes in the offseason, especially in the secondary. But if Tank Williams, former 49er Lance Schulters, and Andre Dyson can bring back the same defensive backfield play that gave the Titans one of the top defensive teams in the NFL from '99-'00, they'll be right back in the hunt. HOUSTON: Yeah, they're an expansion team. And yeah, they're built for the most part with the future in mind. But the Texans are probably the most talented expansion team in history. But talent isnt enough (ask the 2000 Redskins). This year will serve as the Texans' opportunity to build chemistry among their solid young veteran players and give David Carr a chance to learn the NFL game. And while the hard knocks will come early and often, by the end of the year the Texans will be playing as a team and might play spoiler to some bubble teams' playoff drive (Dec. 8 @ Pittsburgh, Dec. 22 @Washington, Dec. 29 vs. Tennessee). AFC South: CINCINATTI: Alright, dont laugh, but listen to this. The Bengals have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. ...Okay, you can laugh. But listen to this. Corey Dillon. Peter Warrick. Levi Jones. Willie Anderson. Justin Smith. Takeo Spikes. Brian Simmons. All these guys would start on any team in the NFL. The Bengals have solid backups behind Dillon, go six-deep at WR, have a talented, veteran offensive line, a highly solid defensive line. One of the top linebacking corps in the NFL, and a secondary that's finally starting to come together. If it wasnt for that damned QB position, the Bengals would be a sleeper Super Bowl pick. But sadly, the Bengals this year will be going to war with Jon Kitna, Gus Frerotte, and full-on first round bust Akili Smith as their quarterbacks. Not exactly a formula for a championship. Coach Dick LeBeau has assembled a young, enthusiastic coaching staff that believes in itself and the players, but unless Cincy can pull a Patriots and make something out of nothing with their quarterbacks, it'll be another laugher for the Bungles. Still, they should be fun to watch. BALTIMORE: My, how the mighty have fallen. Baltimore is barely able to field a roster full of NFL-worthy talent, let alone a competitive team. Gone from the 2000 championship team's starting lineup are Trent Dilfer, Sam Gash, Qadry Ismail, Shannon Sharpe, Jeff Mitchell, Rob Burnett, Tony Siragusa, Sam Adams, Jamie Sharper, Duane Starks, Rod Woodson, and Kim Herring. And gone with them are this team's chances. The Ravens will welcome back tailback Jamal Lewis from a torn ACL, but that's about the only bright spot as this year will serve mostly as a stage for Chris Redman to prove himself as a capable NFL starter. The Ravens have a long way to go before they'll be good again. PITTSBURGH: This team is, for the most part, the real deal. The wide receivers are good (when does that ever happen in Pittsburgh?), the offensive line is dominant, and the defense is as dynamic as ever. If it wasnt for a hiccup against the Patriots in last year's AFC Championship game, we might be referring to Kordell Stewart and co. as world champions. But that is past, and we face this year anew, and the question about the Steelers, as it seemingly always is, is this: Can Stewart lead them to the promised land? Yes, Stewart was a finalist in MVP voting last year, but the man formerly known as Slash is a model of inconsistency. Every time he looks poised to break out and seize stardom, he follows it up with a horrible year. Factor that in with genuine concerns about Jerome Bettis' future, and the Steelers still have plenty of questions to answer about their legitimacy. But they've provided themselves safety nets this time. Last year when Bettis went down, Amos Zeroue (sic?) and Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala provided capable play. And the Steelers signed the Lions' Charlie Batch to a one-year deal in the offseason. Should Stewart get injured or just plain suck, Batch can lead this offense. So my AFC Super Bowl pick wears the Black and Yellow. CLEVELAND: One of the league's most improved teams last season, the Browns looked like they were an offseason away from ranking among the league's best. And then they hiccuped. The only significant improvement the Browns made was at halfback, drafting William Green to start ahead of incumbent James Jackson. And while Green will probably prove to be the real deal, the Browns didnt address shortcomings at left tackle, wide receiver, or safety. The other solid move they made was importing Earl Holmes from PIttsburgh. But while former Steelers 3-4 inside linebackers have a history of succesfully making the switch to 4-3 middle linebackers, there are questions about Holmes' health that must be addressed. And if a weak offensive line fails to keep Tim Couch healthy for a second straight year, the Browns will find themselves the same place they found themselves last year -- on the outside looking in at the playoffs. AFC WEST: DENVER: The Broncos are sort of a hodge-podge of talent that seemingly doesnt quite fit together. Incredibly deep at HB (even with the unfortunate loss of Terrell Davis), rather shallow at wide receiver, and with no true left tackle on the roster, one wonders how Brian Griese -- a guy who is only as good as the players around him -- can be expected to resurrect a career hanging in the balance. And on defense the Broncos have no pass rushing defensive ends (but a bunch of defensive tackles), solid linebackers, and a secondary that really isnt as good as statistics might indicate (Deltha O'Neal had nine INTs last year, but was repeatedly burned for long pass plays). If Mike Shanahan and co. can pull another stroke of genius, this odd collection of talent might do something, but more than likely it'll be another up and down year in Denver. KANSAS CITY: The Chiefs have been trying for two years now to create a KC version of the interestate rival Rams' offense. This year they might have done it. Last year they struck gold in HB Priest Holmes. This year they beefed up the offensive line with tackle William Roaf and improved the WR corps with the addition of former Lion Johnnie Morton and the return of Sylvester Morris. If Trent Green isnt stuck trying to force balls into the hands of inferior wide receivers, he might show himself for what he really is -- one of the most underrated players in football. The Chiefs will be much-improved this season. SAN DIEGO: Everything was going right in Charger-land heading into this offseason. The additions of LaDanian Tomlinson, Drew Brees, Marcellus Wiley and co. were succesful, and while the Mike Riley experiment was coming to an end, his successor was already in the fold in offensive coordinator Norv Turner. And just when the series of events that would play out to get the Chargers headed in the right direction for 2002, something odd happened. Marty Schottenheimer was hired as head coach. Norv Turner went to Miami to serve in the same coordinator capacity for longtime friend Dave Wannstedt. What? Leave it Chargers management to screw up a good thing. Schottenheimer is a limited head coach who, while having had success in his career, has never won a Super Bowl -- the ultimate goal. Schottenheimer relies too much on family and friends to fill out his coaching staff and that leads to too many like-thinking minds in the braintrust -- no new ideas. So while the Chargers could have had a new start with Turner and Tomlinson and Brees, now they face a future with the Schottenheimer family, which will probably lead to debacles in big games just like the Chiefs had for so many years with Marty at the helm. So close, and yet so far.
OAKLAND: Here lies the biggest obstacle in the path of the Steelers for AFC supremacy. Well, if Bill Callahan can rally the troops like Jon Gruden did. The talent is all there for the Raiders, who have a great veteran team and an improved defense. The scheme is all there, as Gruden's entire coaching staff returns. Now it's up to Callahan to shape and mold this team into the Super Bowl competitor it should be. The defense was greatly improved with the additions of John Parella, Sam Adams, Bill Romanowski, Rod Woodson, Phillip Buchanon, and others. And the offense, led by Rich Gannon, Charlie Garner, Tim Brown, and Jerry Rice, probably has one more stellar year left in them. If the pieces all come together, the Raiders are the only AFC team with the sheer talent to match up with the Steelers. Then it all comes down to Callahan.
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